With Donald Trump coming out in favour of Luddism, I’m reminded of the potentially negative role labour organisation can play; the temporary protection of existing worker’s benefits, coming at the expense of future, more devastating disruption. The US Longshoremen should take a closer look at the workers in the VW factories which are about to be shut down. The problem may be the structure of relations, which inevitably pits employer vs employee. So what if you were always both?
Robots are going to free up a huge amount of manual labour, AI is going to free up a huge amount of mental labour. The opportunity is there for a bright future where we humans can get on with the business of taking care of each and of the species. Can you find this future? We have to at least believe it is possible.
Perhaps robots are the answer? Agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, warehousing - are all sectors in the process of workforce transformation, becoming increasing automated with fewer human workers adding QA and oversight. Major manufacturing powerhouses in East Asia lead the way in this robot density - the number of robots per worker. UK not on this chart at least.
As embodied intelligence, human beings are processing much more information than even the world’s most advanced AI. But the bodies are coming to the AI too and we’re about to see another step change in the future of work when embodied AI begins showing up to work. A selection of models on the production floor now. Rewatch this in 6 months time to see how dated these robots seem then.
The market opportunity in this transformation is enormous—$4.6 trillion in the next five years —as AI begins to eat into in-house salaries and outsourced services.
If you want to know what VC thinks about AI, this post is as good as you’ll find - an astonishing vision of the transformation of ‘Software-as-a-Service’ to ‘Service-as-Software’, where tools becomes workers, with the opportunity being the budget usually allocated to payroll. Huge implications for us in TA / HR - or indeed, anyone in any job. Must read
I’m reminded of that scene in Hardhome: Game of Thrones when Jon Snow boards the last of the boats fleeing the shore, looking back as the majority of the Wildlings get left behind to the mercy of the White Walkers. Replay of this in the Philippines as progressive early adapters become AI-enabled, whilst those left behind take to industrial action to protect their jobs. We’re all going to have to run to the boats.
Big week for AI & Automation with the blockbuster launch of Tesla’s Optimus robots. Some impressive demo’s of embodied AI which points to a future where a great deal of front line work (you know, the jobs where we do have a human talent shortage..?) might be performed by $30,000 per unit robots rather than human workers who cost at least that every year. AI is coming for everybody’s work - important we start the conversation on the ‘politics of productivity’ - and who to fairly distribute the gains from automation. H/T to brainfooders Stanislaw Wasowicz and Rob Dromgoole for their respective shares in the online community
The news that Klarna plan to get rid of Salesforce and Workday and replacing them with self built AI was a shot across the bows of the whole Saas market. Got me thinking that we should all get to know CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski a little more, hence H/T to brainfooder Alexander Chukovkski for the share of this interview with Sequoia Capital podcast from a month ago. Worth a watch, and Klarna, a company in the middle of restructure and transformation, is likewise worth a follow.
Good news! - the era of software developers complaining about having to work on a legacy code base is coming to a close. Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy last week announced Amazon Q, an in-house GenAI assistant which can refactor code in seconds, saving Amazon an incredible ‘4,500 developer years of work’. Two visions on how this goes - more time freed up for new feature / product development, or smaller sized engineering teams because the codebase will self update and self maintain. Whichever the case, the work of s/w engineering with change as prompting the machine overtakes writing the script. H/T to brainfooder Stanislaw Wasowicz for the share in the online community
Textual analysis of earnings calls is turning out to be a useful analytical tool in understanding what is happening inside businesses, especially if that data is then correlated with other publicly available information. This case reviews the correlation between mentions of wage inflation and increase rate of automation - no surprise that there was a strong connection. Cost of living crisis is a cost of business crisis, and so long as these conditions persist, the pressure to reduce costs will be inexorable, and that means offshoring or automating or both.
Techno-optimist view is that AI will disrupt jobs but will create more jobs as this is just ‘how technological innovation goes’. Nuanced views are rare, so this one is welcome, where Anton Korinek does a great job of outlining the competing arguments before making recommendations on what is the most likely outcome, as well as pointing out that it is the pace and extent of innovation which might in the end be the determining factor. Good watch / listen. H/T to brainfooder Jacob Sten Madsen in the online community
The reason why I am advocating for TA / HR to become AI-enabled is so that we can provide internal services for a C-level determined to AI-enable the business. Because if we don’t do it, the hundreds of thousands of management consultants from the likes of EY, Accenture, McKinsey, BCG et al are going to. Have a read, have a think - and change your priorities accordingly.
Will tech change the way we eat? A rhetorical question because it has always done so ever since some enterprising homin first cooked meat over fire. Fascinating conversation with Steve Ells who is launching perhaps the most highly automated fast food retailer yet. Far less human workers, but the ones who are there are better paid - is this an example of a model to be replicated across the economy? Very interesting listen, once you get past the ads…H/T to brainfooder Bas van de Haterd for the share
Early retirement is not always a choice, especially for those who work in physical jobs. How about using AI + robotics to reduce injury risk and prolong working life? Nice story here about positive use of AI to keep people in work, rather than replace them. Though, with Unitree G1 Humanoid robot going onto the market for $16K, it might just be another matter of time.
BBC Economist Editor Faisal Islam with a fantastic tweet thread of Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi’s sensational debut as an EV manufacturer, selling over 100,000 cars in 72 hours of launch. The innovation may be less in the vehicle but more in the highly automated ‘dark factory’ in which they were made. The AI / Automated future will collapse the costs of goods & services (great for consumers, cost of living) precisely because they reduce the most expensive input - human workers (not so great for said workers). Entire thread is well worth the reading
There probably isn’t a more admired CEO at the moment than NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, whose big gamble a decade ago that AI chips not only saved the then struggling company but has since catapulted it into maybe the most important company in the world. Full keynote of the March GTC here.
With the news this week that Hollywood studios are in discussions with OpenAI on text-to-video product SORA.ai, this video collage from a movie producer TikToker is timely and poignant. If we wanted to know what industry wide disintermediation looks like, it will be something like this.
Last week’s video of Huawei’s EV factory turned out to be a hit - and guess what? Every country and company are doing the same - roboticising manufacturing as much as they can. One inadvertent outcome of workforce automation is the shrinking of the physical footprint of the factory - turns out, if you get rid of the human workers, you can condense the space to create ‘microfactories’. Fascinating video
Here’s the solution to the headaches that come from employing people….simply don’t. Chinese telecoms giant Huawei have recently entered the burgeoning EV market and are using highly automated factories to make their cars, whilst running a TikTok account livestreaming the action. We human beings are entering into an uncomfortable squeeze - the fight for the better working conditions increases the cost of employment to companies who care only about servicing the market. The aforementioned Amazon, incidentally, installed 750,000 robots into their logistics functions last year up x 2 from 2021 installation figures.
$32,000 for your own trainable semi-autonomous robot seems like a bargain to me. What’s more the fact that source code is open source, means that the distribution of embodied AI like this is much more likely spread throughout society than the walled garden approach favoured by the likes of Apple. It’s an unquestionably impressive demonstration, and a clear signal that manual, on-premise work is not safe from disintermediation either.
I thought this chart was the most relevant of the 9 discussed in this review post by the World Bank. Working age population flatlines in direct correlation to economic development. Have we timed this perfectly, so that AI / Automation take on human work just at the moment we run out of humans to do it? Or is the talent shortfall in the exactly those sectors where robots no matter how smart can do the job? Lots to think about going into 2024
The Games Development industry is massively under reported on brainfood - and it’s something I will be doing a better job of covering in 2024. Reports like this 80 Level is a suprisingly in-depth breakdown of the industry, which significant real estate dedicated to core TA / HR issues like workplace culture, hiring trends, comp & bens and the job search. We don’t have an equivalent for the TA / HR sector, somebody should really create one. 10. World Bank 2023 in Nine Charts: A Growing Inequality
I thought this chart was the most relevant of the 9 discussed in this review post by the World Bank. Working age population flatlines in direct correlation to economic development. Have we timed this perfectly, so that AI / Automation take on human work just at the moment we run out of humans to do it? Or is the talent shortfall in the exactly those sectors where robots no matter how smart can do the job? Lots to think about going into 2024
AI is not just coming for the elites of course, they were always coming for the manual workers too. Fascinating long read on the history of robot installation at one of US’s biggest employers, Amazon. Remember that Amazon currently employees 1.5 million plus workers and recently overtook UPS and FedEx to become the leading parcel distributor in the US. How many people work in these companies today, how many will work in these companies tomorrow? UBI needs to come back into the public discourse, stat…
Kudos firstly to Boston Dynamics marketing team who fully understood from the very beginning the visceral impact of video. Seeing the robot ‘Atlas’ in context, supporting a man at work, effectively replacing a man at work is an unnerving experience - they are getting remarkably good a performing agile, manual work and can probably already do it better than a human if you take endurance, sleep and performance degradation due to tiredness into account. One of many companies building robots, for one of many countries increasing robot installation capacity. Revolution in white collar work, is being matched by a revolution in blue collar work.
The persistent (and perhaps permanent) candidate shortage in many industry sectors will accelerate the adoption of robots. Right now the concentration is in heavy industry, but it will become real to us when it gets into pizza.
The requirement of Starbucks, Morton Williams and other US food retailers to hire security and limit hours in order to keep operating is not only a sad statement of affairs but also a futile gesture when underlying issues producing societal collapse remain unaddressed. In the interim, expect workforce automation to be one of the ways for food businesses to stay viable.
One of the main challenges to workforce automation in agriculture is the picking of soft fruit. Apples machines can do, blueberries have always been another matter, instead requiring legions of human fruit pickers to not damage the fruit. That challenge now seems to be solved.
Software writing software is the inevitable future of programming; GitHub Copilot brings that future much closer than we ever might thought, especially at the ridiculously accessible $10 per month price point. Think of this like a coding auto-correct / auto-filler - providing tremendous productivity boost to software engineering, whilst improve code quality, promoting standardisation and therefore interoperability. It really is an incredible innovation and it will basically mean ‘less coders required’
3D printing hasn’t had a lot of buzz during the past few years (world has had other stuff going on..) but the progress of the hardware has been astonishing. Now mobile printing units can go out and landscape an entire park, speeding up construction, saving energy and …reducing labour requirements. Output still looks a bit fugly but still, aesthetics will come.
Love this podcast, mainly because it feeds my technophile bias. A sequence of smart interviews with engineers and scientists working on smart machines who are going to help humanity do better. We obviously need as much help as we can get. H/T to brainfooder Bas van de Haterd for the share
Entirely plausible story of a the single technology expert in a non-tech environment, working remotely in the Covid era. Stuff like this is a reason why there is a boss vs worker disconnect on the return to the office. Because if you can get away with it, why wouldn’t you? And indeed, if the output is what we are paying for, what would be the problem?
Excellent compilation of automation statistics, put together in an interactive website which allows easy navigation to the parts most relevant to current needs. Lots for us here, including which sectors automation will have greatest impact and jobs for the future in light of automation. One of those resource posts which you bookmark for referencing to all year.
‘Management’ - a concept already under pressure from the revelations of distributed working - will get a further body blow when the robots arrive, according to this study at Wharton. It’s the managerial jobs which will go first. Have a listen
Fascinating research on the impact of an earlier era of tech induced unemployment and labour reallocation. Bottom line? Younger workers quickly re-skilled to other roles, whilst older workers suffered permanent reduction in income and opportunity. Long read but summary is accessible and plenty of food for thought.
Persuasive argument against the Bill Gates position of taxing robots which displace human workers - it will simply discourage robot adoption, leading to less competitive businesses who are precisely those firms which employ less humans as well as robots. One to think about folks, especially as it does dip into an interesting side discussion as to how to define a robot….
When we think of workforce automation we often think it is going to be a ‘bottom first’. Compelling argument that perhaps it really should really be other way round. It’s not entirely a joke. Have a read
…. would be rather weird if you did, but this is not about you and I it’s about a Boston Dynamics robots dancing a New Year celebration to The Contours 1962 hit. The motor control is amazing, especially if you compare to 10 years ago. The robot workforce is here.
Great essay detailing the impact of industrialisation on the bootmakers of 19th century England. Tech unemployment was real then, and whilst it did lead to new job opportunities, those new jobs were often in a different location to the old ones displaced, necessitating relocation. Rare to see this type of quantification of previous eras of tech disruption. Must read
How far away are we from fully automated factories? Soon, it seems according to Chinese phone manufacturer Xiaomi. This video promo might give you a bit more of flavour than the article. The assembly line is coming to an end and future isn’t going to wait around for us to get comfortable with it. H/T to brainfooder Bas van de Haterd and Martyn Redstone for the share in the fb group
How susceptible is your job to computerization? Fun to try with ‘recruiter’ or 'HR’ of course, but an interesting exercise to intel on which job types are more or less likely to be resilient against automation - and therefore good or bad markets to focus on if we need to port over. Cool tool and H/T brainfooder Martin Poole for the share
Big tech bad report, excoriating Amazon for using ‘employer surveillance’ technology to manage worker productivity. Which is another way of saying that they are tracking workers for signs of potential labour organisation and unrest. Productivity, profit and politics - sounds like a topic for a Brainfood Live at some point. H/T brainfooder Petar Vujosevic for the share
There’s this feeling of, “You don’t need them. They make mistakes. They make demands
The quote refers not to robots but to human workers. We strike, we get sick, we complain, we litigate, we retire, we leave. Robot workers will do none of these things. A non working future is kind of staring us in the face, as this beautifully rendered post explains. H/T Martyn Redstone for the share in the fb group
UK data set from Office of National Statistics but interesting reading for all. Seniority seems to provide insulation from automation, even if the occupation is the same - is there a case to be made for climbing the career ladder as quickly as possible, now? Brainfood for sure - take a look at the report here
Interesting survey results from Deloitte Insights on worker expectations of automation. Generally, everyone confident and optimistic that automation will augment human work, not make it obsolete. We all suffer from outcome bias
Meaning human beings with responsibilities for robot workers. Fascinating conjecture based on research by Gartner on the rapid adoption of robots across industries - who will be responsible for the robot workforce? Not sure it’s going to be HR, but perhaps it is something we should embrace. Brainfood for sure - have a read
Stunning interactive storytelling from Pudding Cool, one of the new wave of data visualisation blogs out there. Truckers vs Developers compared on ‘automate-ability’. Truckers don’t fare well but likely overoptimistic on developers also I’d say. Have a play here
Evidence on what we already know - jobs in small cities will likely be hit hardest by workforce automation. Research from NorthWestern University, presented in a decent interactive tool. The politics of the ‘left behind’ is only going to accelerate
Interesting headline research from Oracle and the Future Workplace, especially on the regional variance. It seems the more we work with robots, the more we like them - even if they are our bosses. Easy read - check it out and have a think here
It’s not only humans that have to fear tech unemployment - it’s also humankinds best friends are in the line of fire. Fascinating story from New Zealand on the coming redundancy of the venerable sheep dog.
Trump is 15-20 years behind the times. There have been more tweets about Saturday Night Live than the real reason why rust belt American has suffered economic decline. Will robots be the next bad guy to get the blame?
Fascinating report from McKinsey Global Institution on the distribution of job displacement by automation. Key insight? population in areas most at risk, are least willing or able to move. The website is great, and you can also download full report here
The bosses want the robots, but the workers are less enthusiastic. The tension between the two will shape the future of organised labour. Easy reading research from the Economist - download the PDF here
Excellent essay from Enrique Dans on the history of workforce automation. Workers will initially fear it - maybe even sabotage it - but it will lead to increased productivity in the end.
As workforce automation begins to move from fringe concern to mainstream news, data analysis is catching up to what has been evident on the ground in local communities. This report from the St Louis Fed tracks the potential connection between robot adoption vs %age of population employed in routine manual jobs in the US rust belt.
Amazing gif of a warehouse in China where an army of self charging robots sort 200,000 parcels per day, 24/7. The few humans in attendance (maybe 3?) are reduced to placing parcels on top of the bots to deliver. Soon, they’ll be gone too. We’re on the cusp of an economic revolution folks.
Robots are coming for everyone, including Germany where precision engineering remains a mainstay of Europe’s strongest export economy. The widgets are still going to be made, but more than ever, it will be done by other machines.
Warnings about job-stealing robots miss the other automation crisis: in warehouses, call centers, and other sectors, intelligent machines are managing humans, and they’re making work more stressful, grueling, and dangerous.
It’s ‘automated management’ and it’s already here. Long, important read
When workers automate their own duties, who should reap the benefits? Ethical dilemmas abound in this fascinating long read from The Atlantic, which presents the perspective from ‘self-automator’s’, the people who’ve automated their own jobs.
Before you freak out, the video is fake. But it’s not far away as Amazon has those patents and the financial muscle to make it happen. It’s still a stunning video of the near and inevitable future - take a look here.
The next industrial revolution is poised to rewire the global workforce. We need to be having the post jobs conversation now argues Moshe Vardi, Professor of Computer Science at Rice University.
Fascinating story on some internal processes at Amazon’s fulfilment centres, measuring performance by amount of time ‘on task’ and firing those who fall beneath the bar. Is this worse than being fired by a human boss? Intuitively, it’s a yes, but. then….why? Worth brainfood.
Scott Santens tracks the historical trends of workforce automation. Turns out, robots have been with us for a long time, just hiding in plain sight. It’s time we realised where we’re headed.
Driving trucks is the most individually popular jobs in the majority of the States in the US. Automation is going to have huge socio-political implications, as this handy map from Axios will show
‘Professions’ will be the next to go, maybe at the same time as truck drivers. We’re going to see a squeeze on white and blue collar, at the same time. Have we got a plan? We don’t have a plan.
The Amazon Go employee-free retail experiment might be run foul of certain laws in the US but the idea of a 100% human free shopping experience won’t go away, especially in China. Huawei opens its first smart unmanned store in Wuhan to usher in the new decade - and perhaps the inevitable future of on-premise retail.
Xenophobic nationalism based on the promises made by venal politicians on a future that cannot be delivered. No politician has a plan for workforce automation. Certainly no politician is tweeting about it. We’re in trouble folks.
There are no dramatic plant closings, and no easy solutions. But blaming ‘the other’ is a well established vote winner. Political piece on peak jobs, Donald Trump and the future of employment.
Japan is routinely fascinating but this story from the Economist describes a possible future for all of us when there is a surplus of human labour in the advent of AI / automation. Will we become like the police in Japan - overmanned, over officious, inventing crimes for want of things to do? Have a read and let me know what you think….
The technical potential for automation differs dramatically across sectors and activities. Mckinsey - of course - have a framework for analysing which jobs are going to go. Long read with a bonus infographic they want you to download (to be fair, it’s pretty good)
This is a cool twitter bot which tweets exclusively about other bots, specifically ones that are directly replacing humans at work. It’s a visual exploration of the world of automation and well worth a follow folks.
We’re all over the map in predicting what AI + Automation will do to jobs, so how very handy of MIT to compile the relevant studies into single chart, complete with links to the primary sources. One to bookmark folks.
For now, Amazon’s the 300K+ workers are mostly safe as much of the stowing and picking of items, which require fine motor skills and discernment, is done by human brains and hands. That is changing, however, as robots become increasingly more sophisticated.
What a 19th-century rebellion against automation can teach us about the coming war in the job market. The lesson: even optimistic projections do not deny that transition will be painful.
It’s hardly ED209 but the creep factor is nearly as bad. Still, arguments can be made for the greater security that comes from surveillance state. Do we just need to get over our fear of these mobile CCTV’s? Maybe
